Quote by Paul Ehrlich that illustrates some of the anti-nuclear movement's thinking

"Giving society cheap, abundant energy ... would be the equivalent of giving an idiot child a machine gun."

-Paul Ehrlich, ``An Ecologist's Perspective on Nuclear Power'', May/June 1978 issue of Federation of American Scientists Public Issue Report

The 1980-1990 Ehrlich-Simon Bet- Ehrlich's Mistake

Economist Julian Simon won a famous bet with Paul Ehrlich about how the price of metals would move in the 1980s. The population biologist Paul Ehrlich who tends to believe that the world is facing increasing scarcity believed that the price of metals would go up because of this. Simon, paying attention to costs of production and the magnitude of reserves believed the prices would go down. The bet concerned the price of 5 minerals. (Ehrlich got to choose which 5 minerals). Simon sold Ehrlich an option to buy an amount of each mineral worth $200 in 1980. Inflation was taken into account, so that the payoff would be an amount in 1990 dollars corresponding to whoever's predictions were more accurate. If the price went up, Simon would pay Ehrlich, and if they went down, Ehrlich would pay Simon. Here's what happened to the minerals, which had been selected by Ehrlich.

All 5 minerals went down in price, taking inflation into account, so Ehrlich sent Simon a check for $576.07. Just a check, no letter. Simon offered another bet on a proposition of Ehrlich's choice, but Ehrlich declined.
The source for the Ehrlich-Simon bet and its outcome is an article by John Tierney entitled "Betting the Planet" in the New York Times Magazine, December 2, 1990, starting on page 52. There's a lot more in it about the issues than just an account of the bet.