The Transient worksheet
is constructed by clicking the appropriate button on the
Matrix page. Given an initial starting state, the worksheet
shows the transient probabilities for 20 or more steps.
The START button provides the opportunity to specify the
initial state. Pressing the MORE button reveals probabilities
for additional steps. In addition to state probabilities,
columns provide the economic value for each step, the cumulative
value and the present worth using the discount factor.
The transient analysis for the example
problem starting from the state of a new bulb is shown below.
For example after 12 months of operation, approximately
60% of the bulbs in the sign will be new (after maintenance),
while only about 1% will be entering their 4th month of
life. The expected cost of maintaining one bulb in the sign
is $0.71, the cumulative cost for the twelve months is $9.14,
and the present worth of costs using a 10% discount rate
per month is $4.96. These figures can be used to estimate
budgets or make decisions regarding alternative design or