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[]Tx iSV3Ki Àb;ֹv2ʨgnA?* +3')C4bE-F5Z4H-F5Z4HF!_պm|Aov=_xu{#EZVZcɨ?U}y)n Ww-WrKQ\F. |h&n6JQ!MZ) h9;wGzTS61D)\WZMײ 0>e'k?.D].@O]]?.D]BSzڊєV1+kew 9:+ղ.]<}tܛY\ě ț oB&D$"oB&.J ٛ bd0 .\ Ĉ K\b Ĉ K\b Ĉ KL\- ՜.+,0D   'On-screen Showc{ Times Book AntiquaMonotype SortsSymbol untitled 1Microsoft Word 2001 Document?Economic Analysis in the Public Sec7(   Document Word.Document.80.Microsoft Word DocumentDocument Word.Document.80.Microsoft Word DocumentDocument Word.Document.808Microsoft Word 2001 Document&/ 00DTimese SortsHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p;DBook AntiquasHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p; DMonotype SortsHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p;0DSymbole SortsHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p;e .@  @@``  @n?" dd@  @@`` dQ     ?B$}ltZ{i2~B$*Yqm/XMee~2YB$kbC]0 `1?0 J@ g4:d:dP=p;648!;CA=`ppp@ <4!d!d= Aʚx=Duʚ;2Nʚ;<4dddd=uʚ;2Nʚ;Dph___PPT2001D<4Xp;.>Economic Analysis in the Public Sector Benefit/Cost Analysis .?(    Introduction TPublic investment decisions involve a great deal of expenditure, and their benefits are expected to occur over an extended period of time Examples of public sector investment projects are public transportation systems, environmental regulations flood control programs Decision criteria is whether the project is in the best public interest PPIP4 Economic Analyses Toolsbenefit/cost analysis to maximize benefits for a given set of costs to maximize net benefits when both benefits and costs vary risk-benefit analysis to incorporate the risk in the benefit/cost cost-effectiveness analysis to minimize costs to achieve a certain level of benefitsi,9i,9   Benefit/Cost Analysis Procedure 1. Identify all users benefits expected to arise from the project. 2. Quantify, as much as possible, these benefits in $ 3. Identify and quantify sponsor s costs 4. Determine study period and interest rate 5. Compute the benefit/cost ratio  Example 1 State of Michigan is considering a ban on the use of salt on highways. An alternative de-icer is sold for $600/ton. Salt costs $14/ton. 2000 was a typical winter. Michigan spent $9.2 million on salt (=> used 657,143 tons) estimated $427 million of highway corrosion damage, $525 million of rust damage to vehicles, $98.5 million of corrosion damage to utility lines, $6.5 million of water supply damage a total of $1057 million damage due to saltz=- $-Yd $Example 1 (cont d)}Complete ban from salt in favor of the chemical de-icer yields Direct User benefits /year = $1057 million Direct Sponsor costs/year = ($600-$14) 657,143 = 385 million Yearly Benefit/Cost Ratio User benefits / Sponsor costs = 1057/385 = 2.75 > 1 Indirect Benefits/Costs: Higher state income tax Unknown environmental changes Unknown effects of the chemical de-icer?Z\Z ZZ4ZZ_Z?       _  $3BSelecting an Interest Ratewhen projects span multiple years, you need an interest rate to factor in the time value of money in the public sector, this rate is called social discount rate (or discount rate) For projects without private counterparts, social discount rate should reflect only the public organization's borrowing rate For projects with private counterparts, social discount rate should represent the rate that could have been earned had funds not been removed from the private sector+R(~N+( R ~  NPW Benefit/Cost Ratio6Given bn = benefit at time n, n = 1, ..., N cn = expense at time n, n = 0, ..., N i = discount rate K = initial investment period, bn=0 for n=1, .., K Benefits versus Costs NPW of benefits = B = SNn=0 bn (1+i) -n NPW of costs = C = SNn=K+1 cn (1+i)-n Investment versus Recurring Costs Investment = I = SKn=0 cn(1+i) -n Recurring Costs = C = SNn=K+1 cn(1+i) -n , C = I + C - O"^ #  l  $    $   "      $             $         -k?=! RatiosBenefit/Cost Ratio = B/C = B / (I+C ) Accept when this ratio is greater than 1 Modified (Net) Benefit/Cost Ratio = (B - C )/I Accept when this ratio is greater than 1 Notes: B/C > 1 if and only if (B-C )/I > 1 so the decision rule does not change. The value of the ratio itself might change. B/(I+C ) > 1 if and only if NPW > 0 You can also perform the same analysis with NAW&)/)&)/)   Example 2: Power Plant Design0Suppose the building of a 5,000-kwh power plant is being considered. The plant would only be used at 50% of capacity. The rest of the capacity would be lost. This would require a $5 million investment. O/M costs are estimated at $75,000 per year. Electricity is worth $0.05/kwh. Economic life is 35 years. Discount rate is 8%. NAW of Benefits = (24hrs/day)(365 days/yr)(5,000 kw/hr)($0.05/kwh)(0.5) = $1,095,000/yr NAW of Costs = $5,000,000(A/P, 8%,35) + $75,000 = $504,016 B/C = 1,095,000/504,016 = 2.17 Modified B/C = (1,095,000 - 75,000)/429,016 = 2.38\ZF ZZ, ZSZHF,SP e  $Example 3: Three Alternative Designs%%   !Incremental Benefit/Cost Analysis""When mutually exclusive alternatives exist, each additional increase in investment should be justified based on the additional benefits the additional costs, and the discount rate. Perform Incremental Analysis Step 1: Ignore projects with B/C < 1 Step 2: Rank projects in increasing order of investment Step 3: Calculate the B/C ratio of the difference between the current alternative and the next alternative in rank order^qZFZZ ZqF $Example 3 (cont d)   Risk-Benefit AnalysisEconomic impact of a variety of public projects can be differently affected by risk. The extension of the benefit/cost analysis to include public -sector risk situations is called risk-benefit analysis. Instead of using annual costs, we use expected annual costs.6&Cost-Effectiveness AnalysisCombines non-monetary factors (effectiveness) and monetary aspects (costs) Three conditions where cost-effectiveness analysis is trivial: effectiveness of all alternatives is the same, so rank by decreasing costs costs for all alternatives are equal, so rank by decreasing effectiveness For any pair of alternatives, if both the cost and effectiveness of one dominate the other, then eliminate the dominated alternative*%Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Procedure&&1. Establish goals to be achieved by the projects 2. Identify constraints on achieving goal, such as budget, capacity 3. Identify all alternatives 4. Determine interest rate 5. Determining life-cycle cost of each alternative 6. Use incremental analysis to choose the best alternative Example 4 /Three ways to construct an accident barrier on a densely populated highway are considered. The goal is to reduce the number of head-on collisions. Construction and maintenance costs therefore have to be weighed against accident rates. The study period is 10 years. The interest (discount) rate is 6% 00$Example 4 (cont d) )Pitfalls of the Cost-Effectiveness Method**The analysis may To make a valid decision, we need to either fix the cost of the system and maximize effectiveness over cost fix the goal and minimize the cost/ effectiveness of alternatives meeting or exceeding goal*>>$Example 4 (cont d)Suppose you need at least a reduction of 50 accidents per year, then you will select the best alternative among: the wire-mesh barrier with $/accident = 1943 the concrete barrier with $/accident = 2127 Z@3Y@3YP ` ̙33` ` ff3333f` 333MMM` f` f` 3>?" dd@ ?" dd@   @" A` d n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` ` p>>   T ( ڭ 8 z-  z-z@ a a   BC DEF18c8c? @   BC DEF18c8c?"" @b   BC DEF18c8c?#h# @Q   BgC DEF18c8c?"Df" @0   BFC DEF18c8c?!#E! @a @ fz-  fz-  S BjC1DEF1?0i0i 0 @z-   S BYC1DEF1?0X0X 0 @!z   S BHC3DEF1?2G0G 2 @2fz   ZpAwawa1 ?pPp  T Click to edit Master title style! !@  Z8oAwawa1 ? 0&   RClick to edit Master text styles Second level Third level Fourth level Fifth level!     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HHMSWD ,Times ( " Alternative(#Concrete+Barrier(#% Wire-mesh+ Barrier(# Landscaped+Median+Barrier 1"f1#"1|"e1| [(@(NormalCJmH <A@<Default Paragraph Font| ||j||~@ :O$\ 5|@@GTimes New Roman5Symbol3 Arial3Times"hUfUf69!0MValerie TardifValerie TardifObjectPoolLLOlePres000WordDocumentSummaryInformation(}#"|1}"}a (T (a) Investment) $1,110,000)l$680,000)c$540,000 1GH GG1GH#"G1GH"Ge1GH#"G1GH|"Ge1G|H}#"G|1G}H"G}a (j (b) Annual* Maintenance Costs(j$30,000)f$40,000)c$20,000( (c) Total Annual Costs* (a) (P/A, 6%,10)+(b)($180,816)f$122,392)c$103,370( (d) Annual Reduction* in Accidents(85)f63)c41 1 1#"1"e1#"1|"e1|}#"|1}"}a ( Cost/Effectiveness)$2127/(accident(3$1943/(0accident($2521/(accident 1 1#"1"e1#"1|"e1|}#"|1}"}a1 1#"1"e1#"1|"e1|}#"|1}"}ac |jbjbSS 11|] G,1%b22  AlternativeConcrete BarrierWire-mesh BarrierLandscaped Median Barrier(a) Investment$1,110,000$680,000$540,000(b) Annual Maintenance Costs$30,000$40,000$20,000(c) Total Annual Costs (a) (P/A, 6%,10)+(b)$180,816$122,392$103,370(d) Annual Reduction in Accidents856341Cost/Effectiveness$2127/ accident$1943/ accident$2521/ accident \z-7J|CJ 5CJ   2LM\gpyzȴ8$$l\$\ TL$$$$l $\ TL$"$$l0$\ $$$  2LM\gpyz-0367JQZajqz{| (-0367JQZaj08$$l\$\ TL$$$$l $\ TL$$$jqz{|$8$$l\$\ TL$$$% 2!"#$% Oh+'0`   ( 4@HPX'ososValerie TardifoaleNormal Valerie Tardifo2leMicrosoft Word 8.0d@G@2[G@G69DocumentSummaryInformation8# ՜.+,D՜.+,H hp  'The Univ. of Texas at Austin5-:  Title 6> _PID_GUID'AN{0B0AB307-3F03-11D5-9734-080007CF187A}rp?GI8@H=7JLLOQT,WYl\ _aLdgpjmp4sutx{~ P6(  !"#$%&'()*+,-./023456789:;<=>?@ABD Oh+'0P4@      (0',Place of Engineering Economics in the WorldEng. Econ. Lecture 0EcoValerie Tardifu(Time, Money, Uncertainty, OrganizationsimeaDuo:Microsoft Office:Microsoft PowerPoint 4:Templates:Color Overheads:movnglnc.ppt - Moving Lines: Paul Jensen126Microsoft PowerPoint 4.0oso@6.@T@1C.@рGPICT @@ HH Z_ڄ 2PPPP2PPPP.PPPP.PPPP.PPPP2PPPP2PPPP.PPPP.PPPP L    y   v   g J^          PPPP PP PP tor Benefit/Cost Analysis IntroductionEconomic Analyses Tools Benefit/Cost Analysis Procedure Example 1Example 1 (contd)Selecting an Interest RateNPW Benefit/Cost Ratio RatiosExample 2: Power Plant Design%Example 3: Three Alternative Designs"Incremental Benefit/Cost AnalysisExample 3 (contd)Risk-Benefit AnalysisCost-Effectiveness Analysis&Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Procedure Example 4Example 4 (contd)*Pitfalls of the Cos   Document Word.Document.80.Microsoft Word DocumentDocument Word.Document.80.Microsoft Word DocumentDocument Word.Document.808Microsoft Word 2001 Document&/ 00DTimese SortsHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p;DBook AntiquasHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p; DMonotype SortsHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p;0DSymbole SortsHAH A0=6p;;l0=6p;e .@  @@``  @n?" dd@  @@`` dQ     ?B$}ltZ{i2~B$*Yqm/XMee~2YB$kbC]0 `1?0 J@ g4:d:dP=p;648!;CA=`ppp@ <4!d!d= Aʚx=Duʚ;2Nʚ;<4dddd=uʚ;2Nʚ;Dph___PPT2001D<4Xp;.>Economic Analysis in the Public Sector Benefit/Cost Analysis .?(    Introduction TPublic investment decisions involve a great deal of expenditure, and their benefits are expected to occur over an extended period of time Examples of public sector investment projects are public transportation systems, environmental regulations flood control programs Decision criteria is whether the project is in the best public interest PPIP4 Economic Analyses Toolsbenefit/cost analysis to maximize benefits for a given set of costs to maximize net benefits when both benefits and costs vary risk-benefit analysis to incorporate the risk in the benefit/cost cost-effectiveness analysis to minimize costs to achieve a certain level of benefitsi,9i,9   Benefit/Cost Analysis Procedure 1. Identify all users benefits expected to arise from the project. 2. Quantify, as much as possible, these benefits in $ 3. Identify and quantify sponsor s costs 4. Determine study period and interest rate 5. Compute the benefit/cost ratio  Example 1 State of Michigan is considering a ban on the use of salt on highways. An alternative de-icer is sold for $600/ton. Salt costs $14/ton. 2000 was a typical winter. Michigan spent $9.2 million on salt (=> used 657,143 tons) estimated $427 million of highway corrosion damage, $525 million of rust damage to vehicles, $98.5 million of corrosion damage to utility lines, $6.5 million of water supply damage a total of $1057 million damage due to saltz=- $-Yd $Example 1 (cont d)}Complete ban from salt in favor of the chemical de-icer yields Direct User benefits /year = $1057 million Direct Sponsor costs/year = ($600-$14) 657,143 = 385 million Yearly Benefit/Cost Ratio User benefits / Sponsor costs = 1057/385 = 2.75 > 1 Indirect Benefits/Costs: Higher state income tax Unknown environmental changes Unknown effects of the chemical de-icer?Z\Z ZZ4ZZ_Z?       _  $3BSelecting an Interest Ratewhen projects span multiple years, you need an interest rate to factor in the time value of money in the public sector, this rate is called social discount rate (or discount rate) For projects without private counterparts, social discount rate should reflect only the public organization's borrowing rate For projects with private counterparts, social discount rate should represent the rate that could have been earned had funds not been removed from the private sector+R(~N+( R ~  NPW Benefit/Cost Ratio6Given bn = benefit at time n, n = 1, ..., N cn = expense at time n, n = 0, ..., N i = discount rate K = initial investment period, bn=0 for n=1, .., K Benefits versus Costs NPW of benefits = B = SNn=0 bn (1+i) -n NPW of costs = C = SNn=K+1 cn (1+i)-n Investment versus Recurring Costs Investment = I = SKn=0 cn(1+i) -n Recurring Costs = C = SNn=K+1 cn(1+i) -n , C = I + C - O"^ #  l  $    $   "      $             $         -k?=! RatiosBenefit/Cost Ratio = B/C = B / (I+C ) Accept when this ratio is greater than 1 Modified (Net) Benefit/Cost Ratio = (B - C )/I Accept when this ratio is greater than 1 Notes: B/C > 1 if and only if (B-C )/I > 1 so the decision rule does not change. The value of the ratio itself might change. B/(I+C ) > 1 if and only if NPW > 0 You can also perform the same analysis with NAW&)/)&)/)   Example 2: Power Plant Design0Suppose the building of a 5,000-kwh power plant is being considered. The plant would only be used at 50% of capacity. The rest of the capacity would be lost. This would require a $5 million investment. O/M costs are estimated at $75,000 per year. Electricity is worth $0.05/kwh. Economic life is 35 years. Discount rate is 8%. NAW of Benefits = (24hrs/day)(365 days/yr)(5,000 kw/hr)($0.05/kwh)(0.5) = $1,095,000/yr NAW of Costs = $5,000,000(A/P, 8%,35) + $75,000 = $504,016 B/C = 1,095,000/504,016 = 2.17 Modified B/C = (1,095,000 - 75,000)/429,016 = 2.38\ZF ZZ, ZSZHF,SP e  $Example 3: Three Alternative Designs%%   !Incremental Benefit/Cost Analysis""When mutually exclusive alternatives exist, each additional increase in investment should be justified based on the additional benefits the additional costs, and the discount rate. Perform Incremental Analysis Step 1: Ignore projects with B/C < 1 Step 2: Rank projects in increasing order of investment Step 3: Calculate the B/C ratio of the difference between the current alternative and the next alternative in rank order^qZFZZ ZqF $Example 3 (cont d)   Risk-Benefit AnalysisEconomic impact of a variety of public projects can be differently affected by risk. The extension of the benefit/cost analysis to include public -sector risk situations is called risk-benefit analysis. Instead of using annual costs, we use expected annual costs.6&Cost-Effectiveness AnalysisCombines non-monetary factors (effectiveness) and monetary aspects (costs) Three conditions where cost-effectiveness analysis is trivial: effectiveness of all alternatives is the same, so rank by decreasing costs costs for all alternatives are equal, so rank by decreasing effectiveness For any pair of alternatives, if both the cost and effectiveness of one dominate the other, then eliminate the dominated alternative*%Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Procedure&&1. Establish goals to be achieved by the projects 2. Identify constraints on achieving goal, such as budget, capacity 3. Identify all alternatives 4. Determine interest rate 5. Determining life-cycle cost of each alternative 6. Use incremental analysis to choose the best alternative Example 4 /Three ways to construct an accident barrier on a densely populated highway are considered. The goal is to reduce the number of head-on collisions. Construction and maintenance costs therefore have to be weighed against accident rates. The study period is 10 years. The interest (discount) rate is 6% 00$Example 4 (cont d) )Pitfalls of the Cost-Effectiveness Method** *$Example 4 (cont d)Suppose you need at least a reduction of 50 accidents per year, then you will select the best alternative among: the wire-mesh barrier with $/accident = 1943 the concrete barrier with $/accident = 2127 Z@3Y@3YP