Operations Research Models and Methods / Computation / Stochastic Analysis /
Markov Chain

Probability Analysis


The Probabilities worksheet computes and displays the n-step transition matrix. The Start button sets the matrix to equal the transition matrix defined on the Matrix worksheet. The More button, provides subsequent n-step transition matrices. The example below shows the 3-month transition matrix for the light bulb case. An entry in row i column j gives the probability of a transition from state i to state j in three steps. To illustrate, the row for 2-mo. gives the probability distribution for the age of the bulb at some location, given that the bulb was 2 months old at the location at the beginning of a three month period.


First Passage Probabilities

Updated 3/29/01
Operations Research Models and Methods

by Paul A. Jensen and Jon Bard, University of Texas, Copyright by the Authors